Manchester United’s quest to return to the Champions League this season appears heavily reliant on one man: Casemiro. Statistical evidence highlights a stark contrast in the team’s performance with and without the Brazilian midfielder on the pitch.
The 33-year-old will leave Old Trafford at the end of the season when his contract expires. Securing a replacement of equal quality has become a top priority for Manchester United’s management this summer, given the pivotal role Casemiro plays in the squad’s performance during the 2025/26 campaign.
Since his arrival, Casemiro has emerged as the heartbeat of the Red Devils’ midfield. A remarkable transformation for a player whom Jamie Carragher once suggested was “ready to retire” just two years ago.
“I will carry Manchester United with me for the rest of my life,” Casemiro told the club’s official website upon the announcement of his upcoming departure.
“From the first day I stepped into this beautiful stadium, I felt the spirit of Old Trafford and the love I now share with the fans for this special club. It’s not yet time to say goodbye; there are still many memories to create over the next four months,” added the former Real Madrid star.
The Impact of Casemiro: With and Without
Looking at the numbers, Manchester United lost all five matches this season in which Casemiro did not start, including two domestic cup eliminations.
He was on the bench when United suffered a dramatic penalty shootout defeat to Grimsby Town in the Carabao Cup in September.
In the FA Cup third round against Brighton, caretaker manager Darren Fletcher opted for a midfield pairing of Kobbie Mainoo and Manuel Ugarte. Casemiro only came on in the 80th minute, with United already trailing by two goals. He managed to assist Benjamin Sesko’s consolation goal, but it was too late to change the result.
In the Premier League, United lost two matches while Casemiro was suspended: a 3-1 defeat to Brentford in September and a 2-1 loss to Aston Villa in December.
Another league game he didn’t start was the Manchester Derby in September; although he entered late, the team was already three goals behind.
Across all competitions, including the Grimsby penalty shootout (which many statisticians consider a draw for expected performance), United have suffered seven defeats this season. Five of these losses occurred without Casemiro on the field.
The two losses he started were narrow 0-1 defeats at home against Arsenal in the opening week and Everton in November. Even in defeat, United dominated in expected goals (xG), such as 1.97 xG versus 0.20 xG against Everton.
Casemiro and the Domino Effect
United’s recent victory over Fulham further underscores this trend. Casemiro opened the scoring and assisted the second goal before being substituted in the 75th minute.
After his exit, Fulham staged a late comeback: Raul Jimenez converted a penalty and Kevin equalized in injury time before Sesko sealed a 3-2 win. Without Casemiro on the pitch, the game momentum shifted, with Fulham scoring crucial goals in the final minutes.
The last 10 to 20 minutes against Fulham mirror Manchester United’s season so far. Of the 40 goals conceded across all competitions, 22 (55%) occurred while Casemiro was off the field. This proportion is striking, considering he starts nearly every match.
Aggregate scores highlight the difference: when Casemiro didn’t play, United were outscored 13-22. With him on the pitch, the tally shifts to 34-18 — a significant statistical contrast demonstrating his influence.
Casemiro’s Mission at Old Trafford
Although it seems unlikely that Casemiro will depart Old Trafford with a trophy this season, he remains determined to finish his tenure at a high level.
The club is in good shape and holds a strong chance of securing a Champions League spot. For Manchester United, the ambition to finish in the top five now heavily depends on Casemiro. Keeping him fit and available for matches may be the key to their success in the coming months.
Every pass, tackle, and interception from Casemiro reinforces the idea that he is more than just a player; he is the linchpin of Manchester United’s season. As the Red Devils strive to reclaim European glory, the Brazilian midfielder continues to define the team’s resilience and competitive edge.
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